EURO Steadied 14-Months Subside Vs US Dollar

EURO falls down by 0.1 percent against the US dollar at the rate of $ 1.2604. In early times it hits at $ 1.2563, the smallest range in the week and almost half a percent than the previous week's 14 month subside of $ 1.2520.

European stocks gains makes the euro fell by 0.6 percent against Yen. According to the report given by EBS the euro is one of the single currency that goes subsides against 1.3997 Swiss francs. Experts are saying that the global factors will dominate the currency pair EUR/USD, despite the fact that Reserve bank Of Australia have announced that it is increasing the interest rate for showing worries over the outlook of inflation and a clench over the labor market. It is expected from the RBA to halt on their diversion for the coming next few months.

US Dollars shows an upgrading of 0.1 percent against the world's major currencies. Although it fells against the Yen by 0.4 percent. Sterling was the strong currency of the last week, but it surprisingly falls against the dollar by 0.3 percent in this mid of week. On Friday the euro snugged near 14 month subsides Vs US dollar make the investors onto worries because already their are ups and downs in the Forex currency market. the poor performance currency of the market this year is euro. The investors are so much worried about the fiscal outlook of euro zone that is hampering the growth of the Europe. European Monetary ministers are trying their best to overcome the recessionary condition, the government is putting efforts in cutting their fiscal spending. Regardless of these facts, the investors are still wondering how long these efforts will sustain.

Market Experts are given their view about the euro currency trading that if the euro currency breaks below the range of $1.25, then halt the loss selling otherwise it will reach upto the $ 1.2330, it is the lowest range of the year 2008. EUR/JPY currency reaches up to the 116.50 Yen after touching the low of 116 Yen below in the Asian trade market. Traders of the Forex market are saying that the euro gains are limited and it partly depends upon the Japanese Yen that is giving support to the euro zone countries. The world's second bond fund that is known as Kokusai Asset Management's Global Sovereign Fund is ready to support the euro by cutting its exposure to 4.8 percent points, although if the euro zone financial crisis continues to their low then the percentage will be 29.6 percent as it is estimated by the market experts at the end of May 2010.

USD/JPY stood at 92.90 Yen, it is seen that it goes up by 0.2 percent from the late New York trade in the Forex market. Where as the USD/GBP goes up by 0.1 percent since Sterling currency is static after a day loss because of the impact of Britain's public finances which undetermines it. On Thursday the market gots a hit of UK trade deficit that is seen high up to more than expected.

Reports from forex trading platform as usual comprises of sliding motion, so traders need to be little more cautious because even though policy makers and officials had tried from head to toe but yet the debt issues do not seem to cease at this level.

Lets have technical viewpoint about the currency pair of USD/JPY trading at the level of 92.54 that opened at the session with 92.79 surging high with the 93.55 level and the lower trade level of 92.49 and the forex online session closed at the trade level of 92.73.

USD/JPY made to swelled up high at yesterday’s trade session but later snipped down and started trading descending because of the sentiments of the Interbank that reached closer to -32%. On Thursday, the currency pair of USD/JPY declined from the level of 93.55 to 92.59 and closed the trade session at 92.73.

With no influential events in today’s trading session at Japan, so JPY is having the trading range in between 92.51 to 92.00 having down-trending at the trading platform.

Canadian Dollar Shows Mild Strength Versus Majors,

The loonie showed mild strength against its major counterparts on Friday in New York, most notably reaching a fresh weekly high against the euro.

Crude oil dropped on Friday as the ongoing problems in the U.S. financial sector could continue to cause traders to feel energy demand could be dragged lower. Light sweet crude for November delivery moved to $105.67, down $2.35 on the session. Prices hit as low as $104.25 in overnight deals.

The Canadian dollar experienced choppy trading with the U.S. dollar on Friday. The pair bounced between 1.0372 and 1.0314 throughout the day, staying just below Thursday`s multi-month high.

Investors weighed a slew of reports showing U.S. gross domestic product and personal consumption fell unexpectedly in the second quarter, while a University of Michigan survey showed consumer confidence dropped more than expected in September.

The loonie climbed to a fresh weekly high versus the euro on Friday. The Canadian dollar advanced to 1.5071 just after 6:00 am ET, up from an early morning low of 1.5164. Traders pondered a report showing French gross domestic product contracted at an expected rate in the second quarter.

FOMC Cuts by 50-bp, Signals Further Easing

He Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate by 50-basis points to 1% by unanimous vote and also lowered its discount rate by 50-basis points to 1.25%. The currency markets were heavily pricing in the aggressive move with the greenback tumbling against the euro and sterling heading into the decision. The dollar fell by over 700-pips versus the pound from 1.5765 to 1.6473 while dropping from 1.2583 to 1.2990 against the euro.

In the accompanying FOMC policy statement, the Fed delivered a somber assessment of the economy saying “the pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly, owing importantly to a decline in consumer expenditures”. The statement also paved the way for additional policy easing at the next meeting in December, revealing expectations for inflation to continue to moderate over the coming quarters. The Fed said “the intensification of financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit”. Accordingly, we look for the FOMC to slash rates again in December with a 25-basis point cut bring the year-end benchmark lending rate to 0.75%.

The economic reports released earlier in the session saw headline durable goods orders for September rise by 0.8% reversing from a steep 4.8% decline a month earlier. The excluding transportations figure improved to -1.1% from -3.3% previously. Several key reports are slated for release in the Thursday session, with weekly jobless claims, Q3 advanced GDP, and Q3 core PCE. Weekly jobless claims are seen largely unchanged at 475k, from 478k a week earlier. The advanced Q3 GDP reading is estimated to post a 0.5% decline compared with a 2.8 gain previously.

U.S. Dollar Holds Steady but Further Weakening Expected

In Asian trading today, the U.S. Dollar held steady versus the Japanese Yen, but the market is merely waiting for the greenback to further soften once the Federal Reserve Bank takes additional quantitative easing measures, as most investors anticipate they will.

November 2nd and 3rd will be the next scheduled meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee; speculation that additional steps will be taken by the central bankers in an effort to spur on the sluggish economy is practically a foregone conclusion. As reported at 2:50 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the U.S. Dollar held at 83.17 Yen, just off Tuesday’s late trading in New York of 83.18 Yen.

Investors will use this week’s release of payroll data to help gauge any potential movements by the Fed. Economists are predicting that non-farms payroll data will show an increase in new jobs by 20,000; in August, approximately 10,000 jobs were shed. Should the forecast prove incorrect, expect that the U.S.

Dollar will be more aggressively sold, with a target of 82.90 Yen, nearing the level at which the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened. Whether or not Japan will intervene again remains to be seen, as many investors feel certain that it would not be any time soon, given the recent quantitative easing measures taken by the Bank of Japan.

Rumours Of Iran Euro Sales Heigtens the USD Currency

Rumors from Iran Central bank said that the management had decided to diminish EURO reserves to 20-25 percent from 50 percent and then convert the euro currency into the Dollars and Gold. It is also heard in the market that the sales of the first stage is begin and its target seems to be 15 billion was expected to be finish off till the end of September. EUR 45 billion is expected amount for the whole sales. Iran is expected to reduce its cost of oil sales in euro. While buying seems to be low and USD stays tight against all the major currencies of the Forex online trading market. Prime Minsiter of Japan has announced its resignation leads to the Japanese currency Yen in the soft order in the market. This announcement of resignation is just come before week and now the currenct finance minster of Japan is the successor as the market expects for the chair of Prime Minsiter.

According to the report presented by the Challenger, Gray the US planned to dropped layoff early makes a fall of 65 percent in the month of May where as eurozone PPI rises to 0.9 percent mom. Aussie GDP reaches to a high of 0.5 percent qoq and 2.7 percent yoy in the first quarter of this year that is 2010. While Swiss retail sales rises to 1.3 percent yoy in the month of April. Monetary base roses to 3.7 percent yoy in the end of the may month. Although the Japan currency is not going as good because of the political uncertainity where as apart from this the US currency is gaining as the demand of risky assets rose.

We have seen that the currency pair USD/JPY reaches to the high level of 92.36 first time after the eigteenth of may where as the currency pair EUR/JPY reaches to 113 level as anticipated in the market after the recovery of the US labor market. In the market rumuors are going on about the next leader of Japan that was expected to the current finance minster will take the vacant position of the Prime Minster of Japan that ultimately leads the Yen currency to lag behind in the market from some past days. Th finance minister of Jpana suggested the BOJ to do not look steady at the market try to fight against the deflation to stop it. While rise is seen in the Asia Pacific of 2.4 percent and the Nikkie embedded the goodness in the stocks by rising 2.46 percent more. The stocks seems to be rebound and also triggers the risk appetite because of the japanese investors amendment foriegn bond net purchases to the most expected till the month of September.

There was a advancement shown in the currency pair of AUD/USD that seems to be rises to 0.5 percent and the currency pair NZS/USD rises to 0.4 percent in the consecutive second day at the Forex market. This is all due to the strong economic data that comes from US while the Aussie demands for the risk appetite. Where as the trade balance of the Australian trade adds the surplus in the month of April as there was a high jump shown in the iron ore exports that is of 25 percent more from the past, coal shipments rises to 40 percent more where as the exports also rises to 11 percent as comapred to the April month. RBA has forecasted that the boom of Asia srocks may lag the Australias's trade in the coming time.

The currency pair EUR/USD seems to be in good path as it seems to be rises from 1.2111 to 1.2281 on first june. It gets the support from the stocks rise in the starting of this month. While as about the US economy it was predicted yesterday that the US comapnies are ready to launch 70,000 jobs as the intial jobless came fells to 455,000 from the previous 460,000. In this week there was a meet fixed between the Finance minsters with central bankers of G20 in Bussan that was in South Korea which decides about the current situation of EURO debt crisis. The currencty finance minster of Japan mentioned in his one of the interview that the european debt crisis leads an adverse effect on the Global economic growth of the country merely because of the leading trading countries that is China, india and Brazil are still ready to fight against the deflation as they are robust enough.

Forex: Ichimoku Cloud Filters Information Storm

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo or equilibrium chart isolates higher probability trades in the forex market. It is new to the mainstream, but has been rising incrementally in popularity among novice and experienced traders. More known for its applications in the futures and equities forums, the Ichimoku displays a clearer picture because it shows more data points, which provide a more reliable price action. The application offers multiple tests and combines three indicators into one chart, allowing the trader to make the most informed decision. Learn how the Ichimoku works and how to add it to your own trading routine.

Getting to Know Ichimoku
Before a trader can trade effectively on the chart, a basic understanding of the components that make up the equilibrium chart need to be established. Created and revealed in 1968, the Ichimoku was developed in a manner unlike most other technical indicators and chart applications. Usually formulated by statisticians or mathematicians in the industry, the indicator was constructed by a Tokyo newspaper writer named Goichi Hosoda and a handful of assistants running multiple calculations.What they came up with is now used by many Japanese trading rooms because it offers multiple tests on the price action, creating higher probability trades. Although many traders are intimidated by the abundance of lines drawn when the chart is actually applied, the components can be easily translated into more commonly accepted indicators.

Essentially made up of four major components, the application offers the trader key insight into FX market price action. First, we'll take a look at both the Tenkan and Kijun Sens. Used as a moving average crossover, both lines are simple translations of the 20- and 50-day moving averages, although with slightly different time frames.

1. The Tenkan Sen - Calculated as the sum of the highest high and the lowest low divided by two. The Tenkan is calculated over the previous seven to eight time periods.

2. The Kijun Sen - Calculated as the sum of the highest high and the lowest low divided by two. Although the calculation is similar, the Kijun takes the past 22 time periods into account.

Now let's take a look at the most important component, the Ichimoku "cloud", which represents current and historical price action. It behaves in much the same way as simple support and resistance by creating formative barriers. The last two components of the Ichimoku application are:

3. Senkou Span A - The sum of the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen divided by two. The calculation is then plotted 26 time periods ahead of the current price action.

4. Senkou Span B - The sum of the highest high and the lowest low divided by two. This calculation is taken over the past 44 time periods and is plotted 22 periods ahead.

Once plotted on the chart, the area between the two lines is referred to as the Kumo, or cloud. Comparatively thicker than your run-of-the-mill support and resistance lines, the cloud offers the trader a thorough filter. Instead of giving the trader a visually thin price level for support and resistance, the thicker cloud will tend to take the volatility of the currency markets into account. A break through the cloud and a subsequent move above or below it will suggest a better and more probable trade. Let's take a look Figure 2's comparison.

To Recap:

1. Refer To The Kijun / Tenkan Cross - The potential crossover in both lines will act in similar fashion to the more recognized moving average crossover. This technical occurrence is great for isolating moves in the price action.

2. Confirm Down / Uptrend With Chikou - Confirming that the market sentiment is in line with the crossover will increase the probability of the trade as it acts in similar fashion with a momentum oscillator.

3. Price Action Should Break Through The Cloud - The impending down/uptrend should make a clear break through of the cloud of resistance/support. This decision will increase the probability of the trade working in the trader's favor.

4. Follow Money Management When Placing Entries - By adhering to strict money management rules, the trader will be able to balance risk/reward ratios and control the position.

The Round Up
This indicator is intimidating at first, but once the Ichimoku chart is broken down, every trader from novice to advanced will find the application helpful. Not only does it mesh three indicators into one, but it also offers a more filtered approach to the price action for the currency trader. Additionally, this approach will not only increase the probability of the trade in the FX markets, but will assist in isolating only the true momentum plays. This is opposed to riskier trades where the position has a chance of trading back former profits.

Spread-To-Pip Potential: Which Pairs Are Worth Day Trading

Spreads play a significant factor in profitable forex trading. When we compare to the average spread to the average daily movement many interesting issues arise. Namely, some pairs are more advantageous to trade than others. Secondly, retail spreads are much harder to overcome in short-term trading than some may anticipate. Third, a "larger" spread does not necessarily mean the pair is not as good for day trading when compared to some lower spread alternatives. Same goes for a "smaller" spread - it does not mean it is better to trade than a larger spread alternative.

Establishing a Base Line
To understand what we are dealing with, and which pairs are more suited to day trading, a base line is needed. For this the spread is converted to a percentage of the daily range. This allows us to compare spreads versus what the maximum pip potential is for a day trade in that particular pair. While the numbers below reflect the values in existence at a particular period of time, the test can be applied at any time to see which currency pair is offering the best value in terms of its spread to daily pip potential. The test can also be used to cover longer or shorter periods of time.

These are the daily values and approximate spreads (will vary from broker to broker) as of April 7, 2010. As daily average movements change so will the percentage that the spread represents of the daily movement. A change in the spread will also affect the percentage. Please note that in the percentage calculation the spread has been deducted from the daily average range. This is to reflect that retail customers cannot buy at the lowest bid price of the day shown on their charts.

• EUR/USDDaily Average Range (12):105
  Spread: 3
  Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 3/102= 2.94%
  
• USD/JPYDaily Average Range (12):80
  Spread: 3
  Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 3/77= 3.90%
  
• GBP/USDDaily Average Range (12):128
  Spread: 4
  Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 4/124= 3.23%
  
• EUR/JPYDaily Average Range (12):121
  Spread: 4
  Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 4/117= 3.42%
  
• USD/CADDaily Average Range (12):66
  Spread: 4
  Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 4/62= 6.45%
  
• USD/CHFDaily Average Range (12):98
  Spread: 4
  Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 4/94= 4.26%
  
• GBP/JPYDaily Average Range (12):151
  Spread: 6
  Spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 6/145= 4.14%

Which Pairs to Trade
When the spread is placed into percentage terms of the daily average move, it can be seen that the spread can be quite significant and have a large impact on day-trading strategies. This is often overlooked by traders who feel they are trading for free since there is no commission.

If a trader is actively day trading and focusing on a certain pair, making trades each day, it is most likely they will trade pairs that have the lowest spread as a percentage of maximum pip potential. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD exhibit the best ratio from the pairs analyzed above. The EUR/JPY also ranks high among the pairs examined. It should be noted that even though the GBP/USD and EUR/JPY have a four-pip spread they out rank the USD/JPY which commonly has a three pip spread.

In the case of the USD/CAD, which also has a four-pip spread, it was one of the worst pairs to day trade with the spread accounting for a significant portion of the daily average range. Pairs such as these are better suited to longer term moves, where the spread becomes less significant the further the pair moves.

Adding Some Realism
The above calculations assumed that the daily range is capturable, and this is highly unlikely. Based simply on chance and based on the average daily range of the EUR/USD, there is far less than a 1% chance of picking the high and low. Despite what people may think of their trading abilities, even a seasoned day trader won't fair much better in being able to capture an entire day's range - and they don't have to.

Therefore, some realism needs to be added to our calculation, accounting for the fact that picking the exact high and low is extremely unlikely. Assuming that a trader is unlikely to exit/enter in the top 10% of the average daily range, and is unlikely to exit /enter in the bottom 10% of the average daily range, this means that trader has 80% of the available range available to them. Entering and exiting within this area is more realistic than being able to enter right in the area of a daily high or low.

Using 80% of the average daily range in the calculation provides the following values for the currency pairs. These numbers paint a portrait that the spread is very significant.

• EUR/USDSpread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 3/81.6= 3.68%
  
• USD/JPYSpread as a percentage of maximum pip potential: 3/61.6= 4.87%
  
• GBP/USDSpread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 4/99.2= 4.03%
  
• EUR/JPYSpread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 4/93.6= 4.27%
  
• USD/CADSpread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 4/49.6= 8.06%
  
• USD/CHFSpread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 4/75.2= 5.32%
  
• GBP/JPYSpread as a percentage of possible (80%) pip potential: 6/116= 5.17%

With the exception of the EUR/USD, which is just under, 4%+ of the daily range is eaten up by the spread. In some pairs the spread is a significant portion of the daily range when factoring for the likely possibly that the trader will not be able to accurately pick entries/exits within 10% of the high and low which establish the daily range.

G7 Leads Shift in Forex Reserves

As you can see from the chart below, the world’s foreign exchange reserves (held by central banks) have undergone a veritable explosion over the last decade. While emerging markets (especially China!) have accounted for the majority of this growth, there are indications that this could soon change. China’s reserve accumulation is set to slow, while advanced economies’ reserves are set to increase.

In the past, central banks from advanced economies have accumulated reserves only sparingly, and in fact, much of this growth can be claimed by Japan. This is no mystery. While held by emerging economy central banks, most of the reserves are denominated in advanced economy currencies. This has ensured a plentiful supply of cheap capital, to support both economic expansion and perennial current account deficits (namely in the US!). In addition, advanced economy central bankers tend to hew towards economic orthodoxy, which precludes them from intervening in forex markets, and obviates the need to accumulate forex reserves. Emerging economies, on the other hand, depend principally on exports to drive growth. As a result, many are driven towards holding down their currencies in order to maintain competitiveness. China has taken this to an extreme, by exercising rigid control over the value of the Yuan, and necessitating the accumulation of $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

This trend accelerated in 2010 with the inception of the so-called currency wars (which have not yet abated). Competing primarily with each other, emerging economies bought vast sums of foreign currency in order to promote economic recovery. Many countries from South America and Asia which don’t normally intervene were also drawn in. The result was a tremendous accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which is reflected in the chart above.
There is already evidence that this phenomenon is starting to reverse itself. Consider first that advanced economies have participated in the currency wars as well. Japan’s reserves have swelled to more than $1.1 Trillion. Switzerland spent $200 Billion defending the Franc, and South Korea has spent more than $300 Billion over the last five years trying to hold down the Won. The Bank of England (BOE) recently announced plans to rebuild its reserves (the majority of which were redeployed towards gilt purchases). The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced similar plans, and may be joined by the Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve Bank.
Advanced economies need currency reserves for a couple reasons. First of all, they can no longer rely on monetary easing to reduce their exchange rates because of the inflationary side-effects. Second, the recent coordinated intervention on Japan’s behalf showed that the G7 will move to protect its members when need be. Finally, political forces are compelling advanced economies to slow the outflow of jobs and production, and this requires more competitive exchange rates.
Emerging economies, meanwhile, are starting to recognize that unchecked reserve accumulation is neither sustainable nor desirable. First of all, managing those reserves can be tricky. Intervention is not free, and exchange rate and investment losses must be accounted for somewhere. Second, continued intervention has several detrimental byproducts, namely inflation and the handicapping of domestic industry. Finally, emerging economy currency appreciation is inevitable. Constant intervention merely forestalls the inevitable and invites unending speculation and inflows of hot-money.

There are a few of ways that currency investors can position themselves for this change. As emerging market economies stop the accumulation of (or worse, sell off) their reserves, a major source of demand for advanced economy currency will be curtailed. This will accelerate the broad-based appreciation of emerging market currencies against their advanced economy counterparts. At the same time, I’m not sure how much reshuffling we will say in the composition of reserves. The euro is plagued by existential uncertainty, while the yen and pound have serious fiscal problems. In the short-term, the Chinese Yuan is prevented by several factors from becoming a legitimate reserve currency, namely that it is too difficult to obtain. (As soon as this changes, you can bet that emerging economy central banks will begin accumulating it. After all, they are competing with China – not with the US). The dollar is certainly also an “ugly” currency, but given the size of the US economy, the depth of its capital markets, and the liquidity with which the dollar can be traded, it will remain the go-to choice for the immediate future.

In the short-term, traders that wish to short advanced economy currencies (namely the Japanese yen) can do so in the secure knowledge that they are backstopped by the G7 central banks. It’s like you have an automatic put option that limits downside losses. If the Yen falls, you win! If the yen rises, the BOJ & G7 should step in, and at least you won’t lose!

Japanese Yen Strength is Illogical, but Does it Matter?

On a correlation-weighted basis, the Japanese Yen has been one of the world’s weakest performing currencies in 2011. Alas, while this information is interesting for theoretical purposes, it is of little concern to traders, who focus instead on individual pairs. Against the dollar (USDJPY), the Japanese yen is still quite strong, having recovered most of the losses inflicted upon it by the coordinated G7 intervention in March. Does the yen deserve such a lofty valuation? No. Will it continue to remain strong as the dollar? Well, that is a different question altogether.

As a fundamental analyst, I am inclined to look at the data before making a determination on whether a particular currency will rise or fall. In this case, the fundamentals underlying the yen are beyond abysmal. The recent release of Q1 GDP showed a 3.7% contraction in GDP. Thanks to an interminable streak of weak growth combined with deflation, Japan’s nominal GDP is incredibly the same as it was in 1996! Based on industrial production, consumption, and other economic indicators – all of which were negatively impacted by the earthquake/tsunami – this trend will undoubtedly continue.

The only force that is keeping Japan’s economy afloat is government spending. While this was a necessary response to anemic growth and natural disaster, it is clearly a double-edged sword. The government’s own (inherently optimistic) forecasts show a budget deficit of 5% in 2015, which doesn’t even include the costs of rebuilding the earthquake region. This will necessitate tax hikes, which will further erode growth, requiring ever more government spending. It seems self-evident that Japan’s national debt will remain the highest in the G7 for the foreseeable future.
From a macro standpoint, there is very little to be gained from investing in Japan. The stock market continues to tank, and bond yields are the lowest in the world. To be fair, years of deflation have made the yen an excellent store of value, but this is hardly of interest to speculator, whose time horizons are usually measured in weeks and months, rather than years and decades.

If not for the yen’s safe haven status, it would and does make an excellent funding currency for the carry trade. Short-term rates are around 0%, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has made it clear that this will remain the case at least into 2013. As you can see from the chart above (which mimics a strategy designed to take advantage of interest rate differentials), the carry trade is alive and well. Granted, it has suffered a bit since 2010, due to increased fiscal and financial uncertainty. However, given that the rate gap between high-yielding emerging market currencies and low-yield G7 currencies continues to widen, this strategy should remain viable.
And yet, the Yen continues to rise against the US dollar. It has receded in the last couple weeks, but remains close to the magic level of 80, and it’s not hard to find bullish analysts that expect it to keep rising. They argue that Japanese investors are eschewing risky asset, and that the yen remains an attractive safe haven currency. Not to mention that volatility (aka uncertainty) serves as an effective deterrent to those thinking about shorting it and/or using it as a funding currency for carry trades.

Personally, I’m not so sure that this is the case. If you look at the way the yen has performed against the Swiss Franc, for example, the picture is completely reversed. The Franc has risen 20% against the Yen over the last twelve months, which shows that heads-up, the Yen is hardly the world’s go-to safe haven currency. In addition, you can see from the chart below that on a composite basis, the yen peaked during the height of the financial crisis in 2009, and has since fallen by more than 10%. This shows that its performance in 2011 should be seen as much as dollar weakness as yen strength. Since I’ve spent countless previous posts explaining why I think dollar bearishness is overblown, I won’t revisit that topic here.

In the end, the majority of traders don’t care about this nuance – that the Yen has conformed to fundamental logic and depreciated in the wake of the natural disasters against a basket of currencies – and want to know only whether the yen will rise or fall against the dollar. Even though, I think that shorting the Yen remains an attractive (and as I argued yesterday, comparatively riskless) proposition. Given that the dollar also remains weak, however, traders would be wise to short it against other currencies.

Risk Still Dominates Forex. The Dollar as “Safe Haven” is Back!

Well over two years have passed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the accompanying climax of the credit crisis. Most economies have emerged from recession, stocks have recovered, credit markets are strong, and commodities prices are well on their way to new record highs. And yet, even the most cursory scanning of headlines reveals that all is not well in forex markets. Hardly a week goes by without a report of “risk averse” investors flocking to “safe haven” currencies.
As you can see from the chart below, forex volatility has risen steadily since the Japanese earthquake/tsunami in March. Ignoring the spike of the day (clearly visible in the chart), volatility is nearing a 2011 high.What’s driving this trend? Bank of America Merrill Lynch calls it the “known unknown.” In a word: uncertainty. Fiscal pressures are mounting across the G7. The Eurozone’s woes are certainly the most pressing, but that doesn’t mean the debt situation in the US, UK, and Japan are any less serious. There is also general economic uncertainty, over whether economic recovery can be sustained, or whether it will flag in the absence of government or monetary stimulus. Speaking of which, investors are struggling to get a grip on how the end of quantitative easing will impact exchange rates, and when and to what extent central banks will have to raise interest rates. Commodity prices and too much cash in the system are driving price inflation, and it’s unclear how long the Fed, ECB, etc. will continue to play chicken with monetary policy.

Every time doubt is cast into the system – whether from a natural disaster, monetary press release, surprise economic indicator, ratings downgrade – investors have been quick to flock back into so-called safe haven currencies, showing that appearances aside, they are still relatively on edge. Even the flipside of this phenomenon – risk appetite – is really just another manifestation of risk aversion. In other words, if traders weren’t still so nervous about the prospect of another crisis, they would have no reasons to constantly tweak their risk exposure and reevaluate their appetite for risk.
Over the last few weeks, the US dollar has been reborn as a preeminent safe haven currency, having previously surrendered that role to the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Both of these currencies have already touched record highs against the dollar in 2011. For all of the concern over quantitative easing and runaway inflation and low interest rates and surging national debt and economic stagnation and high unemployment (and the list certainly goes on…), the dollar is still the go-to currency in times of serious risk aversion. Its capital markets are still the deepest and broadest, and the indestructible Treasury security is still the world’s most secure and liquid investment asset. When the Fed ceases its purchases of Treasuries (in June), US long-term rates should rise, further entrenching the dollar’s safe haven status. In fact, the size of US capital markets is a double-edge sword; since the US is able to absorb many times as much risk-averse capital as Japan (and especially Switzerland, sudden jumps in the dollar due to risk aversion will always be understated compared to the franc and yen.

On the other side of this equation stands virtually every other currency: commodity currencies, emerging market currencies, and the British pound and euro. When safe haven currencies go up (because of risk aversion), other currencies will typically fall, though some currencies will certainly be impacted more than others. The highest-yielding currencies, for example, are typically bought on that basis, and not necessarily for fundamental reasons. (The Australian Dollar and Brazilian Real are somewhere in between, featuring good fundamentals and high short-term interest rates). As volatility is the sworn enemy of the carry trade, these currencies are usually the first to fall when the markets are gripped by a bout of risk aversion.
Of course, it’s nearly impossible to anticipate ebbs and flows in risk appetite. Still, just being aware how these fluctuations will manifest themselves in forex markets means that you will be a step ahead when they take place.

Capital Rationing

The firm may put a limit to the maximum amount that can be invested during a given period of time, such as a year. Such a firm is then said to be resorting to capital rationing. A firm with capital rationing constraints attempts to select the combination of investment projects that will be within the specified limits of investments to be made during a given period of time and at the same time provide greatest profitability.

Capital rationing may be effected through budget ceiling. A firm may resort to capital rationing when it follows the policy of financing investment proposals only by ploughing back its retained earnings. In that case, capital expenditure in a given period cannot exceed to amount of retained earnings available for reinvestment. Management may also introduce capital rationing when a department is authorized to make investments up to a limit beyond which investment decisions will be made by higher level management.

Capital rationing may result in accepting several small investment proposals then accepting a few large investment proposals so that there may be full utilization of budget ceiling. This may result in accepting relatively less profitable investment proposals if full utilization of budget is a primary consideration. Similarly, capital rationing also means that the firm foregoes the next most profitable investment falling after the budget ceiling even though it is estimated to yield a rate of return much higher than the required rate of return. Thus, capital rationing does not lead optimum results.

Debenture Capital

Akin to promissory notes, debentures are instruments for raising long term debt capital. Debentures holders are the creditors of the company. The obligation of the company towards its debenture holders is similar to that of a borrower who promises to pay interest and capital at specified times.

Features

Trustee When a debenture issue is sold to the investing public, a trustee is appointed through a deed. The trustee is usually a bank or an insurance company or a reputable firm of attorneys. Entrusted with the role of protecting the interest of debenture holders, the trustee is responsible to ensure that the borrowing firm fulfils its contractual obligations.

Security Debentures are typically secured by a charge on the immovable properties, both present and future, of the company by way of an equitable mortgage, which is effected by deposit of the title deeds relating to mortgaged assets in favour of the trustees. Debentures not protected by any security are called unsecured or naked debentures.

Redemption Debentures are generally redeemable-perpetual debentures are very rare. The redemption takes place in a pre specified manner. Typically, it occurs between the 5th year and the 9th year. Companies are now required to create a debenture redemption reserve to facilitate timely redemption. A major requirement is that the company should create a Debenture Redemption Reserve equivalent to 50 per cent of the amount of debenture issue before debenture redemption commences.

Interest The interest payment on debentures is a fixed obligation, irrespective of the financial situation of the issuing firm. Typically payable semi-annually, it is a tax-deductible expense.

Right Debentures for Working Capital

Public limited companies can issue "rights" debentures to their share-holders with the object of augmenting the long-term resources of the company for working capital requirements. The key guidelines applicable to such debentures are as follows

• The amount of the debenture issue should not exceed (a) 20 percent of the gross current assets, loans and advances minus the long-term funds presently available for financing working capital, or (b) 20 per cent of the paid-up share capital, including preference capital and free reserves, whichever is the lower of the two.

• The debt: equity ratio, including the proposed debenture issue, should not exceed 1:1.

The debentures shall first be offered to the existing Indian resident shareholders of the company on a pro rata basis.

Bank of Russia Miscalculated the Mortgage

Russia bank analyzed the Russian market for mortgage lending in the first half of 2009, noting a serious worsening in the situation with the mortgage underwriting in the Russian banks. According to CB, the number of banks, regularly issuing the 'ruble mortgage dropped to 100 players, the currency - up to 11. At the same time for six months they have issued loans upto 55 billion rubles., Which corresponds to four years ago.

Review of the status of the mortgage market in the first half of 2009 was published last week in the new issue of the Bulletin of the Bank of Russia. It is based on data from a new form of reporting on mortgage loans by the Central Bank has put in place from 1 January 2009. According to the review of the Central Bank on 1 July 2009 the number of participants of the primary market of mortgage loans decreased from the beginning of the year at 5.5% - to 568 banks. But only 279 banks in the first half provided the mortgage, the rest simply served previously issued loans. Indeed active players have been even less. As the Central Bank, "regularly gave out" mortgages in rubles about 100 banks in foreign currency - 11.

Bankers believe that statistic overly optimistic. "The real issue 10-15 mortgage banks, - said deputy president of the City Mortgage Bank Igor Zhigunov .- Statistics of the Central Bank is distorted due to the stabilization of restructured loans and loans that are issued by mortgage borrowers who find themselves in a difficult situation." Many banks issue credit for one or two a month, so you should not look at the number of players, and the volume, notes deputy director of Alliance and retail banking at Alfa Bank Ilya Zebari.

Indeed, over the same period in 2008 the amount available in the first half of 2009 residential mortgage loans decreased by 6.1 times, in fact returning to the same period in 2006, said the Central Bank. According to the regulator, for the first half the banks were given 44,045 mortgage loans totaling $ 55.4 billion rubles. According to bankers, the real extent of the reduction of the market is higher.

Bank notes that "the main reason for reducing the volume of mortgage lending was a rise in the cost of credit resources, increasing the risks of investing in fixed assets while reducing the possibility of refinancing previously issued loans. The volume of refinanced mortgages by banks for home loans fell in 2008 to 14,6%, to 99 billion rubles. And the beginning of 2009 have almost tripled - to 33.4 billion rubles. The structure of the refinancing has changed significantly. If in 2008, banks sold to other banks 40% of all refinanced loans, then in 2009 - only 29,7%. The share of refinancing through the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending, which is the main channel for mortgage refinancing, rose from 22,6% to 47,9%.

The market confirmed the trend of concentration in mortgage refinancing AHML, but more categorical in their assessment than the regulator. "AHML - the only source of refinancing," - said Mr Zebari. Alfa-Bank, before the crisis was beginning to refinance alien mortgage, now he wants and expects to sell its entire portfolio AHML. VTB 24 continues to securitize their mortgage portfolios. This is not market transactions. "The demand for mortgage bonds is not, therefore, these portfolios have a hold on their balance sheets, or use them as collateral for Bank loans", - states Mr. printers.